A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
